The PGA TOUR season has reached its final destination.
Thirty of the game’s best players have arrived at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta for the 2026 TOUR Championship, with four rounds separating them from one of golf’s biggest prizes: the FedExCup.
Unlike previous editions that used a starting-strokes format, all players began the tournament level this year. That means there are no head starts and no complicated calculations — whoever finishes on top of the leaderboard on Sunday will be crowned the FedExCup champion.
And after Thursday’s opening round, the race is already wide open.
Min Woo Lee Sets the Early Pace
Australia’s Min Woo Lee produced the round of the day, firing a brilliant eight-under-par 62 to take a two-shot lead.
Lee’s aggressive style is perfectly suited to a tournament where there is no benefit in playing conservatively, and his opening round has immediately put him in position to challenge for the biggest victory of his career.
Behind him sits a dangerous group at six-under.
Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Chris Gotterup all opened with rounds of 64 and are just two shots off the lead heading into Friday.
Morikawa, in particular, is one to watch. East Lake rewards elite iron play and control, two areas where the two-time major champion is among the best in the world.
Hovland also has the game to make a serious weekend charge, while Gotterup continues to show why he has become one of the players to watch on the PGA TOUR.
Don’t Forget Scottie Scheffler
Before a ball was hit, there was one obvious favourite: Scottie Scheffler.
The world number one entered East Lake sitting first in the FedExCup standings after another outstanding season. Scheffler has already accumulated 21 PGA TOUR victories by the age of 30 and won the TOUR Championship and FedExCup in 2024.
His preparation hasn’t been ideal, though.
Scheffler battled hand, foot and mouth disease around last week’s BMW Championship, creating some uncertainty over his condition heading into Atlanta.
But writing him off after one round would be a mistake.
When Scheffler is anywhere near contention heading into the weekend, very few players in world golf are better equipped to close the door.
Can Rory Make History?
Then there is Rory McIlroy.
McIlroy opened with a two-under 68, leaving him six shots behind Lee, but he remains one of the most dangerous players in the field.
The Northern Irishman is already the only player to have won the FedExCup three times. A fourth would strengthen his position as the most successful player in FedExCup Playoffs history.
Six shots sounds significant, but with 54 holes remaining, Rory is far from finished.
One low round on Friday or Saturday could change the entire complexion of the tournament.
Defending champion Tommy Fleetwood is another name that cannot be ignored. Fleetwood claimed the 2025 TOUR Championship for his breakthrough PGA TOUR victory and arrived in Atlanta with eight top-10 finishes during the 2026 season.
Meanwhile, Wyndham Clark enters the finale in excellent form after winning the BMW Championship, while Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young and other members of the season’s top 30 remain capable of mounting a weekend charge.
Who Wins on Sunday?
Min Woo Lee has put himself in the perfect position, but maintaining that level for another three rounds against this field is a different challenge.
My prediction is Collin Morikawa.
Starting Friday only two shots behind Lee, Morikawa already has himself firmly in contention. His combination of accuracy, elite approach play and major-championship experience makes him particularly dangerous around East Lake.
Scheffler remains the man nobody will want appearing on the leaderboard on Sunday afternoon, while Hovland looks capable of going all the way.
But Morikawa at six-under is my pick to steadily work his way to the top.
Prediction: Collin Morikawa to win the 2026 TOUR Championship and be crowned FedExCup Champion.
With $10 million reportedly awaiting the tournament winner and some of the world’s best players separated by only a handful of shots, the stage is set for a massive weekend in Atlanta.
Three rounds remain.
One FedExCup.
And by Sunday evening, we’ll have our champion.
My Goat Sports 